El Niño expected to impact winter in Brazil

Winter in the Southern Hemisphere officially began at 5:24 a.m. this Sunday (Jun. 21). The coldest season of the year is marked by low temperatures and short days and ends on September 22, when it gives way to spring.

This year, however, due to El Niño, winter is expected to bring higher temperatures to Brazil, as confirmed by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

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El Niño is characterized by the warming of the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. The name was given by fishermen from Peru and Ecuador, who nicknamed the warming waters in reference to the Niño Jesús, or Baby Jesus.

“We may not have a winter as cold as we have had in the past,” says Melquizedek Rafael Duarte da Silva, a meteorologist at the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet).

He explains that El Niño creates a barrier, particularly near São Paulo, that prevents cold fronts from advancing as far into Brazil’s Southeast and Central-West regions.

In addition to higher temperatures in these regions, the phenomenon may lead to increased rainfall.

“El Niño increases the likelihood of higher rainfall in the southern region and can cause extreme rainfall events, with very heavy rain falling over short periods. Winter is already a rainy season in the southern region. With the added effects of El Niño, this situation could be exacerbated,” Silva notes.

More complex forecasts

The actual effects, however, are difficult to predict far in advance. According to the meteorologist, with global warming and climate change, weather patterns are becoming harder to predict months in advance. The same applies to the exact duration of climatic phenomena.

“Warmer temperatures, for example, may be felt for longer periods. What used to last two or three months, we are now beginning to experience for four or five months. This also applies to periods of drought and rainfall. So this significantly changes the dynamics of long-term climate forecasting,” the meteorologist says.

Winter in the Southern Hemisphere

Winter is an astronomical event that occurs when part of the Earth receives less solar radiation. During this period, the Southern Hemisphere, where Brazil is located, experiences reduced sunlight, while the Northern Hemisphere, which is in summer, receives more.

Since Brazil is a country with a vast territory, the seasons are also experienced differently depending on location. In Brazil’s southernmost city, Chuí, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, during the winter months the sun rises around 7:30 a.m. and sets around 5:30 p.m., meaning the days have less than 10 hours of daylight.

In Macapá, the capital of the state of Amapá, due to its exact location on the Equator, the sun rises around 6:15 a.m. and sets around 6:15 p.m. The city does not have well-defined seasons. These times remain virtually constant throughout the year, with variations of only a few minutes.